Disclaimer:

This valuation is NOT advice and provided as educational only (usually mine), it does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or financial needs. Before acting on the information you should consider if the analysis is accurate (it probably isn’t) and if the investment is appropriate for your investment needs.  You need to also consider your financial situation and <strong>you should seek advice from a financial adviser and/or stockbroker.

I can give no guarantee of the accuracy of the information used, omitted, provided or considered in this analysis.

Or to put the information simply:

You should expect my analysis to contain mistakes and omissions, I’m not a professional stock picker nor do I hold an Australian Financial Services License.  My work is merely for self education and should not be acted on by any persons (sane or insane) in any location so please don’t sue me.

In 2008 I published a brief on Little World Beverages (Analysis of the Common Stock of Little World Beverages), at the time the company was trading at a discount to it’s valuation ($1.86 vs $1.60).  My original view was that the company was overvalued trading on a PER of 32 and I sold at $1.6o having valued them at around $1.20, after reviewing my calculations and talking the team from the Intelligent Investor I revised my valuation up to $1.86 and purchased back my original amount of share shares at $1.56.

Moving in to 2009 the question that needs to be answered is are LWB still cheap?  At present LWB trades at $2.15 (1/11/2009) which is again a PER of around 32 (32.28) and the basic business hasn’t changed significantly (neither have management).  The notable changes are the Dining Hall bar/restaurant (melbourne) has opened and appears to be perfoming well, White Rabbit Brewery opened and while it only makes one beer (dark ale) trade appears acceptable. The big news for the LWB group was in taking a 20% equity interest in a smaller brewer call Stone & Wood Brewing (S&W). The investment in  S&W could be the start of a new phase in growth for LWB, as LWB not only share in the profits of other small breweries but LWB also can utilise the LWB distribution network to increase market penetration.

Currently I value LWB at around $2.44, based on the earnings as shown in the attached spreadsheet (LWB Valuation 2009).

 

Here is a brief summary of an article from http://www.cpacareercoach.com/job-interview-follow-up-evaluating-an-offer/.

What I’ve found is that people focus so much on getting a job they never step back and think about the following twelve points (I know I’ve been guilty of this):

1. Does this opportunity allow me to build upon my previous work experience? Yes or No

2. Do I like the actual day to day work that I will be performing in the role? Yes or No

3. Can I perform the day to day functions of this job successfully? Yes or No

4. Is there a good balance between what I have done and what I need to still learn? yes or No

5. As best as I can, am I aware of the stability of the company or position? Yes or No

6. Does there appear to be an opportunity for growth? Yes or No

7. Does the opportunity align with my personal goals that I want to accomplish? Yes or No

8. Is there an evidence of chemistry and cooperation with the people of the company? Yes or No

9. Is the compensation fair and reasonable for the role that needs to be performed? Yes or No

10. Is my personal values and philosophy in alignment with the company’s values and philosophy? Yes or No

11. Can this experience easily carry over to meet with my future goals? yes or No

12. Is the physical location of the company (commute) acceptable? Yes or No

Now, most accounting & finance people I know will have a tendency to over-analyze this list and of course that is a strength of yours and you should use it. However, don’t let one “no” keep you from accepting a good offer.

Here is a general guidline for you to follow:

Yes on 8-12: If you can get a yes to at least 8 or 9 questions, that is about as good as you are going to get.

Yes on 5-7: May still be a very viable opportunity for you, but you may have to be willing to make some compromises along the way.

Yes on 1-5: You probably need to pass up on this opportunity or run these questions by someone close to you and get their perspective. Lastly, you could possibly negotiate with the potential company to change one of these no’s to a yes.

There is no perfect formula and I will be the first to agree that sometimes accepting an offer is a gut feeling, but for the logical one out there (or the super emotional) this can be a guideline for you.

here is a list of the cheapest drinking spots in melbourne Australia.

Cheap Drinking Spots around Melbourne

Everyone knows someone who buys lots and lots of shares, and talks up their performance when the market is rising and money is easy (this includes Investment banks and managed funds).

Remember back a few years every graduate wanted to work for an investment bank, it was exciting; you could earn lots of cash for admittedly some long hours.  Banks  got to employ the ‘cream of the crop’ in graduates and experienced professionals, so where did it all go wrong?  Why did these highly skilled individuals make some of the worst decisions in historycausing the credit crisis and then not comprehending the full the impact.

Banks as you are aware are in the business of lending and as such should probably have a good idea what security they have loaned against.  How did they lose so much?  I can think of four key items that explain why people (including banks) make poor investment decisions:

1. Previous Experience – Most people in the investment industry have lived through a market fall (for example the dot com bubble).  One of the biggest mistakes people make is they believe the current situation is similar to a previous one.  For example thinking experience gained during the bursting of the dot com bubble is similar to the current credit crisis.   The dot com bubble was caused by hype and hope causing a massive overpricing in technology stocks, where as the credit crisis is related to a lack of funding, something much more fundamental.

2. Self Interest – The people writing the bad loans were no doubt getting rather large commissions and as such had a vested interest in selling as many as possible, hence the rise in NINJA loans.  Self interest is everywhere…. don’t think it doesn’t impact your personal decisions (nor those of your advisors).

3. Prejudgments – Creating a view before all the facts are on the table or only paying attention to data supporting your arguments and disregarding other information.  Who hasn’t heard the sayings “Safe as houses” and “To big to fail”, quite clearly property in the US is anything but “safe” in some areas and some of the “To big to fail” companies have gone bankrupt or been brought out.  What are yours?  Pick an investment, value it, have someone independently look at your work… do they agree?  There are two sides of every coin.

4. Attachments – My favorite (It’s my biggest weakness, apart from stop losses).  How many people have valued a company, purchased shares and then held on for grim life, never revisiting their original assumptions? What about evaluating management performance?  What happened to last years plans?

In conclusion admitting you have a problem is the first step (thank you AA).  Think about your investment style, analyse your performance what works and what didn’t and review your assumptions.  Happy investing – Travis

I can be found on twiter: travislepp or my company: www.ourwedding-registry.com

Picture this, Monday it’s a bright sunny day as you drive into work.  The sky is blue with little white fluffy clouds, you remember with fondness the weekend where you actually got to enjoy the weather.  Parking your car you head into the office; talk to your co-workers about their weekends and sit down at your desk and begin work.

10.00 – Your manager sends you an email requesting a meeting at 11.15.

11.15 – You arrive at the meeting with your boss (maybe someone from HR if you are really lucky); sitting down the first thing from your bosses mouth is:

“As you are aware times are tough…”

“Recently the company has been struggling…”

“There is no easy way to say this…”

11.30 – 11.45 your manager has finished the talk and has ‘generiously’ suggested you take an early lunch and that you should take your time before returning back to work.

1.30 your back at work staring at your screen wondering what to do and staring at the screen.

How did this happen so quickly??

Well there are some signs that you will shortly be leaving the company, based on studies are the top 10 signs you will shortly be departing an organisation:

10.  You are told the company is thinking of standardising processes and that everyone is being asked to document their procedures.

9. People start to take an added interest in what you are doing, expenses, holiday leave etc.

8. You get a new performance review which is unjustifiably harsh.

7. Your staff start ‘helping’ other managers in addition to doing their standard work.

6. You suddenly find that you aren’t invited to meetings you normally go to or that the meeting requests are verbally communicated just before they start.

5.Change of Job Title / Role which is accompanied by a sideway move in your work.

4. Being given a ’special project’ to complete where details are undefined (e.g. budget, deliverables, team).

3. Requests from your boss that were previously communicated to you via speech are now emailed.

2. A few colleagues start avoiding you, not wishing to be seen with/supporting you.

1. People – especially those in HR who you used to talk to, no longer meet your eyes or answer questions via email.

Tell me your thoughts on the subject….

about Travis:

twitter: travislepp

website: www.ourwedding-registry.com

Yes…. it’s finally done my analysis of ventracor is complete.

Please consider the following:
This valuation is NOT advice and provided as educational only (usually mine), it does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or financial needs. Before acting on the information you should consider if the analysis is accurate (it probably isn’t) and if the investment is appropriate for your investment needs.  You need to also consider your financial situation and you should seek advice from a financial adviser and/or stockbroker.

I can give no guarantee of the accuracy of the information used, omitted, provided or considered in this analysis.

Or to put the information simply:

You should expect my analysis to contain mistakes and omissions, I’m not a professional stock picker nor do I hold an Australian Financial Services License.  My work is merely for self education and should not be acted on by any persons (sane or insane) in any location so please don’t sue me.

If despite all this you would like to look at my analysis of Ventracor here it is:

analysis-of-the-common-stock-of-ventracor-v2

Regards,

Travis

First Blogg

January 28, 2009

Hello,

this is my first blog, well actually it’s my second however I seem to have lost my original account somewhere in my travels.  Plus WordPress have been kind enough to already send a hello world one… the nice fellas :D .

ok I’ll press publish and here goes

Hello world!

January 28, 2009

Welcome to WordPress.com. This is your first post. Edit or delete it and start blogging!